The Iranian Nuclear Dilemma

Iran is poised to greatly expand uranium enrichment at a fortified underground bunker to a point that would boost how quickly it could make nuclear warheads, and is building and a missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, right or wrong, Islamic Iran is once again being cast as a pariah within the global community by its theocratic cousin Israel. And with animus and suspicion defining their relationship, is it any wonder the nuclear expertise of either state is considered an existential threat by each to the detriment of progressive regulative authority on nuclear resources in the Middle East? Until the root cause of Israeli and Iranian animosity is addressed the nuclear technology of Iran will surely remains questionable. 

Next-generation centrifuges

They said Tehran has put finishing touches on an installation that houses thousands of new next-generation centrifuges at the cavernous facility, machines that can produce enriched uranium much more quickly and efficiently than its present machines.

While saying that the electrical circuitry, piping and supporting equipment for the new centrifuges was now in place, sources emphasized that Tehran had not started installing the new machines at its Fordo facility and could not say whether it was planning to.

Still, the senior diplomats who asked for anonymity because their information was privileged suggested that Tehran would have little reason to prepare the ground for the better centrifuges unless it planned to operate them.

Fordo nuclear facility

The reported work at Fordo appeared to reflect Iran's determination to forge ahead with nuclear activity that could be used to make atomic arms despite rapidly escalating international sanctions and the latent threat of an Israeli military strike on its nuclear facilities.

Fordo could be used to make fissile warhead material even without such an upgrade. Although older than Iran's new generation machines, the centrifuges now operating there can be reconfigured within days to make such material because they already are enriching to 20 percent a level that can be boosted quickly to weapons-grade quality.

Inspector Herman Nackaerts

United Nation's IAEA inspector Herman Nackaerts says Iran is committed to resolving all outstanding issues and wants to continue with constructive dialogue and progressive regulative authority, offering access to all Iranian nuclear sites. 

For too long destroying the Iranian nuclear industry has been seen by Israel as the only solution, apparently. Yet bombing Iran does not rectify the problematic relationship between Israel and Iran. An attack on Iran would not necessarily prevent subsequent strategic nuclear development by Iran for the basic sake of future state security. It could lead to a greater resolve by Israel to develop still greater weapons of mass destruction to handle the possibility. And so it goes Uranium enrichment U.N. inspections may well prove Iranian proclamations on their peacefu nuclear intentions, but they do nothing about the political divisions between the theocracies of Iran and Israel.

They don't change the basic fact that uranium enrichment can produce both nuclear weapons and energy. And if animus and mistrust remain between Israel and Iran, so might the desire for greater defense systems. 

IAEA chief Yukiya Amano

Iranian officials deny nuclear weapons aspirations, saying the claims are based on bogus intelligence from the US and Israel. But IAEA chief Yukiya Amano has said there are increasing indications of such activity.

His concerns were outlined in 13-page summary late last year listing clandestine activities that either can be used in civilian or military nuclear programs, or "are specific to nuclear weapons."Among these were indications that Iran has conducted high explosives testing and detonator development to set off a nuclear charge, as well as computer modeling of a core of a nuclear warhead.

Iran's Shahab 3 missile

The report also cited preparatory work for a nuclear weapons test and development of a nuclear payload for Iran's Shahab 3 intermediate range missile a weapon that could reach Israel.

Iran says it is enriching only to make nuclear fuel. But because enrichment can also create fissile warhead material, the UN Security Council has imposed sanctions on Tehran in a failed attempt to force it to stop.

More recently, the US, the European Union and other Western allies have either tightened up their own sanctions or rapidly put new penalties in place striking at the heart of Iran's oil exports lifeline and its financial system.

The most recent squeeze on Iran was announced Friday, when SWIFT, a financial clearinghouse used by virtually every country and major corporation in the world, agreed to shut out the Islamic Republic from its network.

The choke-holds are being applied in part to persuade Israel to hold off on potential military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities among them Fordo, a main Israeli concern because it is dug deep into a mountain and could be impervious to the most powerful bunker busting bombs.

If Obama continues on his current path, he could well have a conflict. For this reason alone, he should change course. There are two possible outcomes of the barrage of words being launched here: a war that starts inadvertently (what, one wonders, would be the reaction today if a British naval patrol in the Gulf were captured by the Iranians, as happened four years ago?); or a war that starts after an attack by Israel. A negotiated climb-down by both sides is the least likely option, although the venue for one still exists. The next round of talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany will be held in Istanbul. Failing any breakthrough there, western policy is caught in a cleft stick.

The British foreign secretary, William Hague, warned on successive days that the Iranian nuclear programme could trigger a Middle East cold war and that Israeli military action to forestall it would be unwise. And yet, if you do not believe that sanctions will deter Tehran from its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons (and this newspaper talked to senior US officials who do not), one judgment inexorably leads to the other.

So competing voices in the US administration are both upping the ante and scurrying every month to Jerusalem to restrain Ehud Barak and Binyamin Netanyahu from doing what they have long promised to do. The latest visitor to Israel is Tom Donilon, Barack Obama's national security adviser. Long before coming to power, Netanyahu said that Israel's date with destiny lay with Iran, not the Palestinians. And there is no reason to disbelieve his intention to attack Iran.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

One does not have to doubt the sincerity of Obama's extended hand to Iran at the start of his presidency, or the two personal letters he wrote to its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to worry about the direction in which his administration's policies are leading him now.

Obama is no George W Bush. This president has not pulled out of Iraq, and started the drawdown in Afghanistan, only to start a conflict with a country with the power to mess up both Iraq and Afghanistan if attacked. But if he continues on this path, he could well have a conflict. For this reason alone, he should change course.

So competing voices in the US administration are both upping the ante and scurrying every month to Jerusalem to restrain Ehud Barak and Binyamin Netanyahu from doing what they have long promised to do. The latest visitor to Israel is Tom Donilon, Barack Obama's national security adviser. Long before coming to power, Netanyahu said that Israel's date with destiny lay with Iran, not the Palestinians. And there is no reason to disbelieve his intention to attack Iran.

A way out still exists: it means allowing Iran the ability to produce civilian nuclear energy as it is entitled to do under the non-proliferation treaty. To date, Iran has not broken the provisions of the NPT. The IAEA has a list of unanswered questions about suspected research into warhead miniaturization and nuclear triggers, but nothing has been proved. The gap between suspicion and proof creates the space for negotiation which would cap the amount of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride that Iran could produce, limit the sites in which such enrichment could take place, and prevent enrichment to military-grade levels. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose "deviant current" is battling Khamenei for candidates in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, has offered to stop higher enrichment in exchange for fuel rods. At the moment Iran, Israel and US are watching who will blink first. In the Middle East, that is a dangerous activity.

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Iraqi Oil: Good Reason For Iranian Closure of the Straits Of Hormuz

Iran is prepared to expand military and security cooperation with neighboring Iraq, a top Iranian military official said -- a week after U.S. forces pulled out of Iraq.

Iraqi crude oil production jumped to the highest level in at least 20 years, or more than 3 million barrels a day, said Hussain al-Shahristani, deputy prime minister for energy affairs.

Predator Drone

Iraq’s government, which takes complete control of the country this month after the withdrawal of U.S. military forces, will acquire unmanned drone aircraft to help protect pipelines and related energy facilities that have been frequent targets of sabotage, he said today in an interview in Baghdad.

Hussain al-Shahristani

He spoke hours after nine bombs exploded in the capital Baghdad, killing at least 57 people in attacks that underscored instability and divisions as the U.S. ends almost nine years of military presence in the country. Iraq holds the fifth-biggest natural-gas reserves in the Middle East and the world’s fifth- largest crude deposits, according to BP Plc data that include Canadian oil sands.

Ever since the U.S invaded Iraq and disposed of its oppressive dictator Saddam Hussein, Iran have been hard at work infiltrating and invading every body part of Iraq like a fast-spreading virus with the intent to fully control all aspect of the nation decision-making and today we are clearly starting to see the end result which entails an Iraqi nation deeply influenced by the Iranian evil regime.

Strait of Hormuz

The Middle East neighbors have enjoyed closer ties in recent years, especially as Iraq's Shia Muslim majority has solidified its power in the absence of former leader Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim. Iran's theocracy is Shia-led.

The development comes as Iran is flexing its naval muscles in the region by staging war games.

The drills are the largest ever planned by Iran and are being staged in an area that stretches from the eastern part of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden, Fars reported last week.

Iranian War Exercises

The maneuvers began on Saturday.

These war games are a warning to western countries about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a member of parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said Monday. "If any threat is posed to Iran, the Islamic Republic is capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz."

The strait is a narrow shipping channel that leads in and out of the Persian Gulf between Oman and Iran. It is strategically important because oil tankers carrying Middle East oil travel through it.

The U.S. Navy said any attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz would not be tolerated, and a spokesperson for the U.S. Fifth Fleet said that "the free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity. Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will be an act of economic destabilization.

When asked if the Bahrain-based fleet was taking specific measures to respond to the threat, the spokesperson said the fleet "maintains a robust presence in the region to deter or counter destabilizing activities" but would not provide any further details.






The Iranian threats underline Tehran's concern that the West is about to impose new sanctions that could target the country's vital oil industry and exports.

Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has denied the charges, saying its program is geared toward generating electricity and producing medical radioisotopes to treat cancer patients.

The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, and President Barack Obama has said he will sign it despite his misgivings. Critics warn it could impose hardships on U.S. allies and drive up oil prices.

The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran's central bank. European and Asian nations import Iranian oil and use its central bank for the transactions.

With concern growing over a possible drop-off in Iranian oil supplies, a senior Saudi oil official said Gulf Arab nations are ready to step in if necessary and offset any potential loss of Iranian crude in the world markets.

Iraqi oil will soon be known as Persian Oil Inc.

Reflecting unease over the rising tensions, the U.S. benchmark crude futures contract for February delivery was above $101 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Its London-based Brent counterpart fell slightly, but still remained above $109 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.

Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel that they may take military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.

The navy is in the midst of a 10-day drill in international waters near the strategic oil route. The exercise involves submarines, missile drills, torpedoes and drones. The war games cover a 1,250-mile stretch of sea off the Strait of Hormuz, northern parts of the Indian Ocean and into the Gulf of Aden near the entrance to the Red Sea as a show of strength and could bring Iranian ships into proximity with U.S. Navy vessels in the area.

Iranian media are describing how Iran could move to close the strait, saying the country would use a combination of warships, submarines, speed boats, anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes, surface-to-sea missiles and drones to stop ships from sailing through the narrow waterway.

Iran's navy claims it has sonar-evading submarines designed for shallow waters of the Persian Gulf, enabling it to hit passing enemy vessels.

A closure of the strait could temporarily cut off some oil supplies and force shippers to take longer, more expensive routes that would drive oil prices higher. It also potentially opens the door for a military confrontation that would further rattle global oil markets.