Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The 2012 Up-In-The-Air Report

We have, in case you've not noticed, a Presidential election brewing throughout most of 2012.  (It already seems this has gone on way too long.)

Iran continues to make itself more and more likely to experience some kind of action being taken against it.  The way in which Iran's leaders are behaving, it seems they wish for such action to be taken against them.  If it isn't threatening the U.S. Navy so far as passing through the Strait of Hormuz, it is the announcement that full scale uranium enrichment is going on under a mountain in southern Iran.  If it isn't testing a new missile that can reach Israel or U.S. military installations, it is finding an American citizen guilty of spying without benefit of anything approaching an open trial as we know open trials.
 Ahmadinejad tours uranium enrichment facility 

Much of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz and that is being threatened with Iran saying it will close the Strait.  The Strait is quite narrow and could be disrupted by sinking multiple oil carriers.  If nothing else, the economy of the world would be in tough condition.

All this, of course, seems timed to be happening as we work to elect the next President of our country.  I have no way of knowing what the Iranian end-game is, but they are taking delight in what they see as the repeated challenges they issue to us and to our allies.

President Obama will have his hands full with this hot spot but will no doubt be spending a huge amount of his time campaigning.  Any President would be doing the same in all likelihood.  The Republican candidate, whomever that ends up being, will walk a very fine line in the campaign having to give voice to the Iranian issue but also needing to be sensitive to over-stepping onto the President's turf.  Maybe that is what is driving Iran in the direction it is taking.  Maybe Iran thinks we can't have a political free-for-all and fight a battle at the same time.  Maybe Iran thinks the current President will see this as an opportunity to appear strong militarily during the campaign. 

 Maybe Iran thinks our Congress will self-destruct in the process.  Maybe Iran simply plans to enjoy the whole situation thinking that neither the U.S. nor Israel will dare to mount a military strike.

This is a treacherous game they seem intent on playing.  If this part of the world explodes, none of us will win.

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