The middle eastern despots that we all love to hate have, for nearly fifty years intrigued, appalled, threatened and entertained us have come and gone, but by far the two that stand alone at the top of the list of "World Class Despots" are Bashar al Assad and Mahmoud Amadinejad, So in this editorial I'm going to marry these guys to one another and show case their accomplishments.
President Bashar al Assad |
President Assad; You're up first, So step up and do your father proud.
In Egypt, Hosni Mubarak's long-trusted military helped force him from office. In Libya, top officials scrambled to distance themselves from Moammar Gadhafi almost from the start. Tunisia's Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali fled his country within weeks, while in Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh took his time. But he, too, prodded by neighboring countries, is now in exile.
Hafez ai-Assad |
Syria's President Bashar al Assad, on the other hand, shows no signs of going anywhere. As his military routs rebel forces in Homs and Idlib, intercepted emails appear to reveal his wife furniture shopping for their Damascus home. Assad may derive some of his confidence from a system built by his father, Hafez al-Assad, that has let the family stay in power for the past 40 years.
This regime came
about as a result of a coup in 1970 and was designed from the beginning to
resist rebellion, to resist coups, the elder Assad established an intricate web
of often overlapping intelligence services, and separate entities that means
even the watchers are being watched. Like his son, he staffed key positions
with members of his Alawite minority, warning them, as well as minority
Christians and Druze, of the perils of an unleashed Sunni majority.
The result, so far,
has been a coherent center, with the highest civilian defection being a deputy
oil minister this month, nearly a year into the uprising. Its internal intelligence service keeps an eye
on officers and officials that might defect, and tries to prevent them or to
block that from happening. So, indeed, the defections are still quite minor.
The Free Syrian Army composed of defectors from the government |
Where there have been
defections is from the lower ranks of the military, often Sunni conscripts
unwilling to shoot civilians in villages and cities much like their own. These
defectors make up the bulk of the rebels' Free Syrian Army, a group that
leading opposition member Haitham al-Maleh said is the only one capable of
taking on the government.
They want to defend
themselves and there is no way Assad's regime will not stop by politics, by peaceful means. He must be stopped by force. With the
international community at odds about even political condemnations of the Assad
regime, the chances of a U.N.-backed intervention as in Libya appear slim.
The least the international community can do is give the Free
Syrian Army weapons.
Abdul Aziz Saqr, head
of the Gulf Research Council, said weapons are important, but are only part of
the equation. " You can't fight an
organized military with a Kalashnikov [Russian rifle, AK-47] or a pistol. You
need to have anti-tank missiles, you need to have real reconnaissance and
intelligence information," says Saqr. "If the Russian satellite
reconnaissance has been supplying the Syrian military with a lot of reconnaissance,
the Free Army needs to have real intelligence information to be able to help
them organize their movements."
The role of Russia, a
major arms supplier to the Syrian government, highlights what is likely one of
the biggest differences in Syria's uprising - the heightened stakes of players
both regionally and globally. Syria is one of Russia's last allies in the
region, and is loathe to let the U.S. or Western powers take the lead again as
they did in Libya.
Last year,
predictions that Assad's government would go the way of his counterparts in
Egypt and elsewhere were common: “inevitable” and “imminent” were words often
bandied about. Inevitable is still used by many, but imminent has all but
disappeared.
Washington, while
supporting the opposition with words, has been slow to act, warning of the
complexities of intervention, including the lack even of front lines. The conflict also
comes as the U.S. tries to deal with nuclear and other issues with Iran, which
supports Syria as a linchpin of non-Sunni influence in the region and a gateway
to Iranian proxy Hezbollah.
Vested interests in
the status quo can be found in other nations in the region, including Israel,
which fears a fundamentalist takeover in Syria should Assad go.
“Syria is a strong
military domestic security regime with a neighborhood that is not willing to
take a position against it, like Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey. So the
geopolitics and the relations with the neighborhood have also played a
significant role for not making it easy for any military or external
effort.
Mahmoud Amadinejad |
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad marked International Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, with a speech at Tehran University, in which he said there
would be no room for Israel in the Middle East after a Palestinian state was
established.
Mr. Ahmadinejad, who previously called for Israel to
be "wiped off the map", repeated his denial of the Holocaust during
the speech and said the goal of all "believers" should be "the
disappearance of the Zionist regime".
He said Israel had no place in the region and added:
"The Zionist regime is the hotbed for germs and cancerous cells. "If they persist even in a very small parcel of
the Palestinian land, they will move again... and harm everyone in the
region." He went even further with his usual rhetoric, "Death to Israel" and "Death to
America."
Ahmadinejad has a record of hurling
insults at Israel when he addresses world leaders at the UN General Assembly.
The Jewish state has reason to expect more of the same. Ahmadinejad referred to Israel as a
“fake regime” whose “oppressive preconditions” to peace talks would doom that
nation, then added he said it is a “dreadful party, a feared party, the party
that was behind the first World War and the second World War.”
The Iranian regime has been deeply divided ever
since the disputed 2008 elections and the rise of the Green Movement. President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad used to be Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s protégé. The two are
now clearly at odds. One could clearly sense that there were two rival centers
of power with Khamenei's clearly being the more powerful one.
The result of the external pressure - sanctions,
rhetoric against Iran, and threats of military strikes - has been to shift
power to the hardliners. You can see Ahmadinejad’s power has weakened. It’s
weird to call Ahmadinejad the moderate but in this context he is. Khamenei is
far less willing to strike any deals with the West. Ahmadinejad, in contrast,
has wanted to be the man who delivered some kind of negotiated settlement to
Iran’s problems.
Today, Ahmadinejad is weak and getting weaker.
Ayatollah Khamenei is strong and getting stronger. The people who have been
most empowered the past few years have been the Revolutionary Guard - the
military. Iran is in the process of morphing from a theocracy to a military
dictatorship. It’s not clear what impact this will have on foreign policy - but
it is an interesting consequence of all the external pressure on Iran, not to mention Iran's hope of developing nuclear weapons.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faced demands for his
impeachment after delivering a caustic defense of his record during an
unprecedented public interrogation by Iran's parliament. The Iranian president
outraged MPs with a theatrically abrasive display in which he made light of
becoming the first leader in the country's post-revolutionary history to be
subjected to an official summons by the legislature. Mr. Ahmadinejad's ordeal,
broadcast live on state radio, offered a rare public glimpse into his
increasingly bitter feud with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei |
The president has undoubtedly come off worse in the
power struggle, with his power base significantly weakened by a parliamentary
election this month that resulted in a decisive victory for the supreme
leader's acolytes, known as "principalists". With just over a year to
go before his final term in office expires, Mr. Ahmadinejad has been left
increasingly isolated and weak.
His hopes of handpicking a successor have also
been dented after Ayatollah Khamenei announced that the post of president would
be abolished at the end of his rival's term and replaced with a figurehead
appointed by parliament.
Although the interrogation was designed to be humiliating,
Mr. Ahmadinejad chose to fight back by belittling his questioners with a series
of mocking responses. He was questioned by the outgoing parliament over a
series of economic policy issues, in particular his drive to end costly food
and fuel subsidies, and a banking fraud that implicated some of his closest
allies, further weakening his position.
Intelligence minister, Heidar Moslehi
|
There were questions too about his decisions to sack
the country's foreign and intelligence ministers in defiance of the supreme
leader. The dismissals, seen as part of an attempt to wrest control of security
and foreign affairs from Ayatollah Khamenei, initiated the feud with the
supreme leader.
After making a series of jokes, Mr. Ahmadinejad
berated MPs for not making their questions tough enough before making a
sneering reference to new rules requiring MPs to have a master's
degree."It was not a very difficult quiz," he said, adding that he
expected to be given top marks for it."Any grade of less than 20 (out of
20) would be rude."After the session, MPs said they were furious with the
president's casual manner.
Ahmadinejad's answers to lawmakers' questions
were illogical, illegal and an attempt to avoid answering them," Mohammad
Taqi Rahbar was quoted as saying. "With an insulting tone, Ahmadinejad
made fun of lawmakers' questions and insulted parliament."A number of
legislators said they would now seek the president's impeachment, a step they
are entitled to take if they found his answers unsatisfactory.
For the moment, however, Ayatollah Khamenei is
unlikely to go that far for fear of provoking an open rift that would be
mutually damaging.
Though weakened, Mr. Ahmadinejad retains support
among more moderate conservatives, who back his lack of diligence in imposing
Islamic strictures on women. He also remains popular with the rural poor and
could seek to forge an alliance in the new parliament with independent MPs
representing countryside constituencies, which could make any attempt to remove
him a protracted and unseemly affair.
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