As If The Citizens Of Syria Don't Have Enough To Worry About

Syria descended further into open warfare with armed clashes in the south and on its border with Turkey, with state media additionally pointing to the involvement of Turkish armed forces.

In one of the most serious clashes to date, the Syrian authorities said they had repelled an incursion by 35 "armed terrorists" over the border in the province of Idlib.

They claimed some were wounded, and were ferried away from the battle by Turkish military vehicles to Turkish army aid stations.

The border guards forces suffered no injuries or losses," the state news agency said. "They warned they would stop anyone who even thinks of touching Syria's security or its citizens."

Base Provided By Turkey For Syrian Refugees

Turkey has provided a base and diplomatic cover to the Free Syrian Army, a growing band of defectors, and it is unlikely that an open attack with such a large group of men could have been planned without their awareness.

That alone is enough to draw the two former allies closer to open war, though both are likely to try to avoid it.  

Ahmet Davutoglu

 Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey's foreign minister, has already admitted he considers that a buffer zone inside Syria for refugees from the fighting might have to be considered, with outside military intervention if necessary.

A widening and increasingly dangerous rift is forming between the main strategic alliances in the region. Iran and its allied militia in Lebanon, Hezbollah, are remaining loyal to Mr. Assad but Hamas, another Damascus-based militant group, is making its unease clear.

The Hezbollah / Iran Link to Syria's President Assad 

Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, made his first public appearance in three years, at a rally to mark the Shia Muslim festival of Ashura in Beirut. He said he stood by Mr. Assad as well as fellow struggler in the "resistance" 

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and said that America, the Satan, was trying to overthrow him to make up for defeat in Iraq.

A message to all those who are conspiring against the resistance and banking on change: we will never let go of our arms," he said. "We are tens of thousands of trained fighters, who are all ready to die."

That contains more than a hint that success in what both he and Iran see as a western-backed attempt to undermine Mr. Assad could lead to retaliatory attacks, most probably against Hezbollah’s stated foe, Israel.

Burhan Ghalioun

The overthrow of Mr. Assad would prove an existential threat to his organization. Burhan Ghalioun, the leader of the opposition Syrian National Council, has said a new Syria would break ties with Hezbollah and also its strategic alliance with Iran, further isolating it and cutting off its immediate access to the militant group, which it funds and supplies.

"The so-called Syrian National Council, formed in Istanbul, and its leader Burhan Ghalioun are trying to present their credentials to the United States and Israel," Mr. Nasrallah said.

The United States, meanwhile, said it was returning its ambassador, Robert Ford, to Damascus. France also announced Eric Chevallier, its ambassador would return.

The Free Syrian Army is already engaged in confrontation with regular troops across the country. There has been repeated fighting this week in the town of Dael, near the border with Jordan. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based organization, said that rebels had been trying to prevent the army entering the town to make arrests.

President Saleh; You To Could Be The Next Target

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh

Keeping a low profile at the death of fallen Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, the embattled Yemeni president, as local experts said, became more cautious in dealing with the domestic crisis that saw fierce clashes in the impoverished country.

Just before the bullet to the head



Gaddafi, the Arab world's longest ruler, was killed on Thursday in his hometown Sirte after months of battles with fighters of Libya's ruling National Transitional Council supported by NATO.

Abdul Ghani al-Maweri, a political analyst and writer, said Gaddafi's death was a victory for the Libyan people which will also boost the hope of protesters in other countries including Yemen where people have been struggling to oust the regime.

Khaled al-Hammadi, another political analyst said that if the international community agrees upon a resolution that forces Saleh to leave, he may resort to form a military council comprising his family members and some other loyalists to keep running the country.

On the other hand, some experts argued that Yemen had been witnessing fierce clashes between pro- and anti-government forces in the capital Sanaa and some other cities since the death of Gaddafi, implying that Saleh may launch a civil war in a bid to regain full control of the country.

"We will escalate peaceful protest movement to force Saleh to step down, and we hope he is the next one who faces similar fate of Gaddafi," opposition spokesman Mohamed Qahtan told Xinhua.

The UN Security Council adopted a resolution on Yemen on Friday, calling for Saleh to transfer power through signing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) deal without any delay and end violence, and putting more pressure on the embattled president.

Doubtless, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh understood the lesson from Gaddafi's death but no way can one say how Saleh, who has faced nine-month protests calling for his departure, will exactly take the matter.

Observers predict that there might be two ways out for Saleh, giving up power soon or launching a civil war to regain full control of the country.

The resolution contains no sanction on Saleh or his regime, but it means if Saleh fails to implement it, the Security Council may draft further resolution, including sanctions forcing him to step down, which could push the 33-year-ruler to make a concession.

The Yemeni official media ignored the news of Gaddafi's death as Abdul Janadi, deputy information minister and government's spokesman, told Xinhua on Friday that the Yemeni government should not be busy with the death of Gaddafi at a time when it was trying to lift the country out of the current crisis.

"I don't think the president is going to step down, because if he is willing to do so, he should have done it as he had many opportunities to leave power with dignity during the past months, so it is impossible for him to resign without immense pressure by the international community," political analyst Mohamed al Qadhi said.

"If Saleh is forced to leave power, I think he will not hand it over to his opposition as he mentioned in his speech, but form a military council from his family members and his supporters to confront the attack by the opposition and continue running the country," al-Hammadi said, adding that in that case, Yemen could fall into a full-blown civil war and even turn to be an anarchic country like Somali.

Gaddafi's Golden Hand Gun



Moreover, Saleh and Gaddafi are both presidents with army background who ruled their countries for decades. The armed confrontations between the government forces and protesters finally resulted in the deaths of Gaddafi and some of his family members.

The Yemeni opposition expected a similar fate of Saleh, which the embattled president could definitely try to avoid, especially after being seriously injured in a bomb attack on his presidential palace on June 3.

Daddies Home





It's Good To Be Back Home

  


President Ali Abdullah Saleh made a surprise return to Yemen on Friday after more than three months of medical treatment in Saudi Arabia in a move certain to further enflame battles between forces loyal to him and his opponents that have turned the capital into a war zone.








Abdullah Obal

  Saleh, who did not immediately appear in public after his return, called for a cease-fire and said negotiations were the only way out of the crisis. The statement, however, suggested he does not intend to step down immediately and was likely to only anger protesters who have been demanding his ouster for months and the military units and armed tribal fighters that back the opposition. Abdullah Obal, an opposition leader, said he believed Saleh "returned to run the war and drive the country into an all-out civil war."

Trides men fighting for the opposition in Yemen

The cannons are now speaking. Gunfire is doing all the talking," he said. "The opposition can't meet in this atmosphere. The military people are the masters of the situation now."

The crackle of gunfire continued to be heard over Sanaa after the president issued the cease-fire call. This week, the long deadlock that endured even during Saleh's absence broke down into the worst violence in months as forces loyal to the president's son attacked protesters in the streets and battled troops led by one of the regime's top rivals, Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a former Saleh aide who joined the opposition early in the uprising.

You Will Stop This fighting or I Shall Kill You All


 Around 100 people have been killed - mostly protesters as regime troops hit their gathering with shelling or barrages of sniper fire from rooftops. Residents have been forced to hunker down in their homes or flee the city as the two sides exchanged bombardment over Sanaa from strongholds in the surrounding hills.Saleh's return is a blow to already crumbling efforts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to work out a peaceful handover of power.

Washington is eager for some sort of post-Saleh stability in the strategically placed but deeply divided and impoverished nation in hopes of continuing an alliance against al-Qaida militants in Yemen - the terror network's most active branch, blamed in several plots for attacks on U.S soil.

Anwar al-Awlaki al-Qaida leader in Yemen


The two countries have been pushing a deal by which Saleh would resign in return for immunity from prosecution. Obal accused Saleh of igniting the current violence to wreck the deal - and he said the opposition was hardening its position. "The initiative can no longer give guarantees against prosecution amid all this killing," he said.

In Washington, State Dept spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the deal was still the basis for a solution in Yemen. "Whether President Saleh is in or out of the country, he can make this happen by signing this accord, stepping down from power and allowing his country to move on," she said.

President Salrh way of stepping down


 Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were believed to be trying to keep Saleh from leaving Saudi Arabia. Obal blamed the two countries for not exerting enough pressure on Saleh to step down.


Saleh went to the kingdom for treatment after he was severely burned over much of his body and wounded by shards of wood in a June 3 explosion at his presidential compound in the capital Sanaa. His departure fueled hopes that he would be forced to step down, but instead he staunchly refused to resign, frustrating protesters who have been taking to the streets nearly daily since February demanding an end to his 33-year old rule.As time passed and Saleh recuperated, he was widely expected to stay in the kingdom - and the timing of his return today was a surprise.

The fighting continued after Saleh returned at dawn Friday. Heavy clashes and thuds of mortars were heard throughout the night in Sanaa and into morning hours. Two people were killed overnight after mortars hit the square in central Sanaa where protesters demanding Saleh's ouster have been camped out for months, a medical official said on condition of anonymity. Another two anti-Saleh fighters were killed in a flashpoint neighborhood, where a standoff between Saleh loyalists and a powerful rival tribe have raged. Witnesses said a mortar shell landed on the group of anti-Saleh fighters as they ate breakfast, killing the two, and injuring scores.

By noon, thousands of Saleh supporters and opponents poured into the streets for parallel rallies in different parts of Sanaa during a lull in fighting. The rallies revolved around Friday prayers and also included funeral ceremonies for those from each side killed in the clashes.

Reflecting Yemen's widening rift, each side blamed the other for igniting the latest violence.

At the pro-Saleh rally along Boulevard 70 in southern Sanaa, sermon leaders accused the opposition of attempting a coup and warned against civil war. Saleh's supporters carried his pictures along with those of the Saudi king in a tribute to the neighboring country where Saleh was recovering. Some chanted, "We love you, Ali."

At the opposition rally on Boulevard 60, demonstrators carried pictures of those killed in the violence as speakers urged security forces to stop killing their own people.


"His return means more divisions, more escalation and confrontations," said Abdel-Hadi al-Azazi, a protest leader. "We are on the verge of a very critical escalation."

Yemeni TV announced his return Friday morning, but did not show any footage of him. Saleh's statement, carried on the state news agency, called for a total truce and "a cease-fire to allow for room for an agreement and consensus among the political players."

"The solution won't be through cannons and barrels, but through dialogue, understanding and ending the bloodshed," he said.

Example of Good Health

State TV said Saleh was in good health.

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have been trying to persuade Saleh to sign onto a deal proposed by Gulf Arab states, under which he would resign and hand power to his vice president to form a national unity government in return for immunity from any prosecution.

The mercurial Saleh has repeated promised to sign the agreement, then refused at the last minute.

The latest violence erupted after he recently delegated his vice president to restart negotiations with opponents on the deal. It was considered another stalling tactic by Saleh, and it was followed by a violent crackdown on protesters in Sanaa and other cities.

Yemen's turmoil began in February as the unrest spreading throughout the Arab world set off largely peaceful protests in this deeply unstable corner of the Arabian Peninsula. Saleh's government responded with a heavy crackdown, with hundreds killed and thousands wounded so far.

Mr. Obama; You Have Been Warned



Prince Turki al-Faisal

 Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's former Ambassador to the U.S., is a warning or should I say "A threat"? to America:   Stop supporting Israel or else.

But really, it's not just Israel. The fact is that the prince and the ruling Saudi family really want the U.S. to stop supporting democracy and freedom altogether.

There will be disastrous consequences for U.S.-Saudi relations if the United States vetoes against U.N. recognition of a Palestinian state. It would mark a nadir in the decades-long relationship as well as irrevocably damage the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and America's reputation among Arab nations. The ideological distance between the Muslim world and the West in general would widen -- and opportunities for friendship and cooperation between the two could vanish.

With his comments, the prince is trying to focus the Obama administration and Americans on the "self-determination" of the Palestinians, rather than the "self-determination" of his own people, not to mention other freedom-seeking citizens in the Middle East and Africa. This is not the first time that Prince al-Faisal has blasted the United States for what he calls "favoritism" towards Israel's "occupation" of the land called Palestine. From the moment President Obama was elected, al-Faisal has spoken out against U.S. support of Israel. This time, he appears to have drafted an ultimatum.

Americans must recognize that this finger-pointing at Israel is just a distraction meant to earn sympathy for a new race of 20th-century people, called "Palestinians," who want a homeland. The prince never wants to talk about why Jordan, where many of these Arabs come from, and other Muslim countries are not willing to find a home for these Palestinians in the vast lands they occupy. No, a Palestinian state must be created from the biblical land of the Jews, thus squeezing the latter within borders that are indefensible.

Anti-Semitism continues to run rampant as a rallying ideology that has been fed to Muslims for 1,400 years. The prince, a spokesman for the Saudi family, Saudi citizens, and Muslims around the world, wants his society to remain a "Monarchy," governed by the Qu'ran, with the Western world led to "Sharia Law." Jews, a people whose Torah created the model for democracy, are now being threatened by this prince, who feels empowered to instigate an even wider breach in American-Israeli relations than already exists thanks to Obama's administration.

This is a prince who is defending the Islamic political and social ideology and who understands that Israel is the only stronghold for democracy in the Middle East. He cannot justify the economic, political, and social injustices in his society. So, as occurs with many Muslim leaders, Israel and Jews become the focal point. To delegitimize and eventually eliminate Israel is the universal goal of Muslims, leading to a continent of "true believers" and the spread of Islam in the Western world. This is part of the continuing attempt to shut down the voices of democracy and freedom.

Fortunately, more and more Americans are becoming aware of the lack of equality and freedom that Islam and the Qu'ran preach to its followers. But Americans are surely compromised by the need for Saudi support and stability (oil). Prince al-Faisal writes:

American leaders have long called Israel an "indispensable" ally, until the Obama administration. They will soon learn that there are other players in the region -- not least the Arab street -- who are as, if not more, "indispensable." The game of favoritism toward Israel has not proven wise for Washington, and soon it will be shown to be an even greater folly.

America, we are being warned...and how Obama responds to this will be critical. He might very well want to sell out Israel because of "oil power," the illusion of stability the Saudis bring to the area, and his own favoritism towards Islam. However, one thing the prince has gotten right is that Obama will not be able to cozy up too much to the Saudis until after the 2012 election. The royal family will support Obama's reelection, knowing that the Republicans will not be so "politically correct."

Meanwhile, let's take note that Israel is sitting on a huge deposit of oil and natural gas, $$$ with a warm water sea port $$$ -- probably another reason this prince is speaking out so candidly and openly. Oh, what the Arabs could do with more oil and gas resources...and think of how much less compromising Americans will need to be if the U.S. is able to shift some of its energy purchases to Israel.

The war is truly over the differences between two civilizations -- a democratic society versus one ruled by Sharia law -- but the battle is over Israel for now.

Is Syria Ready To Accept Reforms?





The Syrian Poeple Make Their Final Demand

  



Dr. Bouthaina Shaaban


The Syrian government accepts it has to embrace reform and move towards democracy, a key advisor said today. Dr. Bouthaina Shaaban, senior advisor to President Bashar al Assad, said he wants change because otherwise the country itself would be at risk to Muslim brotherhood’s influences.

Dr. Shaaban was spook to Jeremy Thompson, who is part of a small group of media allowed into Syria under government supervision.

She said: "Everybody now, both the opposition and the Government recognizes that the country is at stake and there is no other way except to go forward.

Jeremy Thompson



"In fact it will be very good for our country, for the people, this march towards democracy where political parties will compete and young men and women participate in political life. We look forward to a very different era in Syrian history."

The opposition claims that more than 1,400 people have been killed - many of them unarmed protesters - since pro-democracy demonstrations began in March.

But the government is blaming the deaths on a minority of religious extremists and pointed out that hundreds of military and police figures have also died.

Dr. Shaaban said "It is definitely a huge concern for us and we condemn the violence but they should condemn also the killing of our military people, our armed people, and our police. Over 500 military and police personnel have been killed by militant groups.”

She continued "Personally I feel there is an organized group, most likely religious extremists, who are conducting assassinations and killings. When you have a violent atmosphere, collateral damage happens."

She added: "We hope that by conducting and hastening the national dialogue, we will be able to isolate any militant or violent group and work together with the international community to overcome that big problem."

She also insisted: "We have no problem at all with peaceful demonstrations" and promised free access to all media outlets to all parts of Syria to cover the protests.

Critics of the authoritarian regime met in Damascus on Monday to call for a peaceful transition to democracy and an end al-Baath rule in Syria. 

President al-Assad's



The public summit was the first since the uprising against President al-Assad's rule started and was conducted with the consent of the government.

The regime appeared to be feeling the pressure of the protest movement and was anxious to show it was prepared to make concessions.

A final communiqué agreed at the meeting called for an immediate end to the crackdown, the withdrawal of the army from towns and villages and a peaceful move to democracy.

The government announced a national political dialogue would start on July 10 with all "factions, intellectual personalities, politicians" invited to take part.

Syria's state-run news agency said the agenda would include constitutional amendments, including access for other political parties as well as the ruling Baath Party.

The US welcomed the meeting but said it would not be a significant step forward unless the violent crackdown on civilians was brought to an end.

My Kingdom For; Let's Say 30 Million Barrels Of Oil

The U.S. Department of Energy announced today that it would release 30 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the country’s emergency energy storage facility, over the next month. The release is being conducted in concert with other developed states of Europe and East Asia that will collectively match the American release. The SPR is stored in a series of massive underground salt domes on the U.S. Gulf Coast, immediately adjacent to several internal energy transport hubs. The oil released will be used almost exclusively in the United States.

The move raises a number of questions; the economics and the politics underlying the issue are questionable. I believes there is no pressing need for the release — at least according to the legislative guidelines that govern the reserve.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Officially, the release has been billed by the Department of Energy as a response to the disruptions in Libya’s oil supply. The ongoing conflict there has resulted in the removal from global markets of roughly 1.6 million barrels per day of light, sweet high-quality crude oil — a total of more than 150 million barrels displaced since the conflict began. Hardly any of that crude ever makes it to the United States — it is consumed mostly in Europe, specifically in Italy and France — but loss of that supply has indeed strained global sourcing. The Energy Department also noted that U.S. oil demand normally peaks in July and August, the height of American vacation season, and that the release should help alleviate the seasonal price spike somewhat. However, oil was priced at $95 a barrel just before the release was announced, well below the $115 per barrel it reached at the onset of the Libyan conflict and much less than the $140 per barrel in mid-2008. Prices quickly plunged by $5 per barrel following the announcement.

This is the first time the SPR has been tapped explicitly in response to high prices. Normally the SPR is an emergency account, only used when there are genuine, direct interruptions to U.S. energy interests. It has therefore traditionally been tapped only in the aftermath of major hurricanes or during military conflicts. There are a few exceptions, most of which are tied to domestic political developments, such as budget talks in Washington or technical shifts in the SPR’s makeup — shifting its fill to higher-grade crude, for example. We do not see this release as related to current budget talks because there are similar releases from 28 other countries. The expected proceeds from this release would only be sufficient to fund the U.S. federal government for one day.

The U.S. Congress recently altered the SPR’s regulations, empowering the administration to take a somewhat more liberal stance as to what constitutes an emergency situation, explicitly noting that high oil prices could justify releases. Currently the SPR is the fullest it has ever been, with 727 million barrels of mostly light, sweet crude in storage. The objective of the current legislation is to, in time, increase that volume to 1 billion barrels.

Oil prices are indeed uncomfortably high, but they are not straining the U.S. economy, especially compared to the price activity of the past three years. Gasoline prices are indeed at record highs, but crude oil accounts for less than half of gasoline prices — and this release is international in nature, so it is not likely tied to a U.S. domestic issue either. Any effort to modify global prices over a sustained period will most likely fail without substantial changes in the mechanics of supply and demand. As large as the SPR and other similar reserves elsewhere in the developed world are, they are necessarily finite, and they do not equate to fresh production.

The economics and the politics behind the issue do not make sense. That the entire developed world is involved suggests that this is neither a domestic American issue nor one that requires any degree of secrecy, rendering the reasons behind the move unclear.

Week 13 Of The Syrian Revolt And Still Nothing From The UN



Mutinous Slodiers Burn Cars In Jis Al-Shughur, Syria


The United Nations Security Council is at an impasse regarding Syria but change is coming in any case.

Things may be reaching tipping point in Syria, as the Baathist regime tries and fails to crush the revolt that has spread from the rural south to central cities like Homs and Hama to Jisr Al-Shughur, on the northwestern border with Turkey.

But they are nowhere near tipping point on the Security Council: world powers there are struggling to agree on a draft resolution condemning a state repression that, according to the UN, has killed 1,100 Syrians and imprisoned 10,000 since March.

After weeks of zero progress, and stung by first reports of mutiny among Syria's 220,000-strong army in Jisr Al-Shughur -- Britain and France submitted a draft resolution on Syria on 8 June. It condemns the state's "systematic violation" of human rights, demands an end to the violence and calls on the regime to allow "unfettered" access to UN humanitarian and rights monitors.

But unlike a council resolution on Libya passed three months ago, it rules out military action, carries no threat of Syria's referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity and wields no sanctions.

UN ambassador Mark Lyall Grant


Diplomats said the text's mildness was designed to garner the widest possible support on the council. "We believe that the world should not stand silent in the face of the outrages that are happening" in Syria, said Britain UN ambassador Mark Lyall Grant.

Permanent members Russia and China opposed the resolution, and may veto it. Damascus is Russia's closest Arab ally, bound by years of defence, intelligence and other relations. In the regime's current fight for survival it is clear with whom Moscow sides. A Security Council resolution "could be misunderstood by destructive forces in Syria who... declare they want regime change in Damascus," said Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin. China too prefers continuity to change.

But Russia and China are not alone on the council. Brazil, South Africa and India also oppose the resolution. And this has less to do with ancient ties than recent experience.

Ambassador Vitaly Churkin



All three countries abstained on a Security Council resolution in March authorizing military action in Libya. They did so out of deference to Arab League calls for a no-fly zone and assurances that the UN mandate would be restricted to protecting civilians, mostly in the besieged rebel city of Benghazi.

Within hours official Arab support evaporated and NATO launched airstrikes armed with a thinly veiled remit of regime change. Brazil, South Africa and India do not want to be dealt the same hand twice.

Syria is "very pivotal when you look at Middle East stability. I think the last thing we want to see or do is to contribute to exacerbating tensions in what we consider to be one of the tensest regions in the world," said Brazil's Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota.

There was "systematic concern" among certain countries on the council about the way the Libya resolution had been implemented, he said. And, unlike Libya, there had been no Arab call for UN involvement in Syria.

That is true, and not surprising. The sole Arab country on the council is Lebanon, a state that in the words of one diplomat is "constitutionally" bound not to oppose Syria at the UN or anywhere else.

From Iran to Saudi Arabia to even Israel the unspoken consensus is while few countries mind a Libya without Muammar Gadahfi, all fear that a Syria without the Baath could unleash sectarian civil wars of an Iraqi scale. The default regional position "will be to try to stick with what is in power right now for fear of what might come after," said Brian Katulis, an analyst with the Center for American Progress.

But if the official response is silence, protests are being heard elsewhere. On 8 June Syria's still largely inchoate opposition sent a letter to the Security Council. It said there was no hope of any transition to democracy with the current regime in Damascus. It had also lodged evidence with the ICC chief prosecutor alleging that crimes against humanity have been committed in Syria since March.

While calling on the world to act, it said it would oppose any resolution that is "modeled on the Libyan situation". Finally, it urged "the powerful democracies of Brazil, India and South Africa -- whose struggles for freedom against repression, colonialism and apartheid have inspired people across the Middle East -- to lead the way in supporting the region's peaceful struggle".

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan


Syria's rebels may find more traction with a powerful democracy closer to home. Of all the states rocked by the Arab spring, Turkey has fared best. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the first leader to tell Hosni Mubarak to slake his people's thirst for freedom or stand down. And having first tried dialogue with Gadahfi, Turkey bowed to the enormous weight of global opinion that the Libyan leader too would have to go.

Erdogan urged dialogue on President Bashar Al-Assad, steeled by the growing détente between the two countries. But faced with 10,000 Syrian refugees seeking shelter on its soil -- and with calls for reform ignored -- Turkey has broken with what had been its closet Arab alley.

The Turkish leader has denounced Syrian army actions against its own people as "savagery". He has said Al-Assad is "no longer possible to defend". And he has warned Istanbul would not tolerate "another Hama", a reference to Hafez Al-Assad's crushing of an uprising in the town in 1982 that left at least 10,000 Syrians dead. Finally, he has hinted Istanbul would support action taken by the Security Council against Syria, the first regional power to do so.

Just Like Daddy



Five weeks ago President Obama delivered an address on the Middle East in which he said it would be “a top priority” of his administration to oppose violent repression and support democratic transitions across the region, using “all of the diplomatic, economic and strategic tools at our disposal.” He singled out Syria, where the regime of President Bashar al-Assad has gunned down hundreds of peaceful protesters, choosing what Mr. Obama called “the path of murder.”

“The Syrian government must stop shooting demonstrators and allow peaceful protests,” the president declared. “It must release political prisoners and stop unjust arrests. It must allow human rights monitors to have access to cities.” As for Mr. Assad, “he can lead that transition” to democracy, “or get out of the way.”

Nearly a month later, Mr. Assad has done none of those things; instead, he has escalated his war against his own people. Over the weekend an elite Army division staged a full-scale assault on the town of Jisr al-Shoughour, forcing most of its population of 50,000 to flee. Nearby Turkey reports that more than 8,500 refugees have crossed its border. Now Syrian tanks are surrounding the town of Maarat al-Nouman, population 100,000, as well as two other towns near the border with Iraq. Human rights groups say the number killed has risen above 1,300.

It seems fair to ask what Mr. Obama has done in response, given his pledge to employ all of the “tools” at the administration’s disposal. The answer can be summed up in one word: nothing. Apart from a passing reference at a May 25 news conference, the president has not spoken in public about Syria since his May 19 address. The token U.S. sanctions applied to the Assad regime at the time of the speech have not been stepped up. While Britain and France have pressed — unsuccessfully — for a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the Syrian repression, the United States has taken a back seat.

The French government has adopted the position that the Assad regime has lost the legitimacy to govern Syria. But the Obama administration has not abandoned the notion that the dictator could still steer Syria to democracy — as ludicrous as that sounds. The administration’s former State Department spokesman, P.J. Crowley, tweeted this week that it’s “odd” that Obama thinks Rep. Anthony Weiner should resign but not Assad. Why, he wondered, does the president send the message that “sending lewd tweets violates public service, but not killing people?”

The administration has excused its passivity by saying that it does not want to “get ahead” of allies in the region, and that it worries about the consequences of a regime collapse. But Mr. Assad’s violence is already causing serious problems for Turkey and for Israel, which has twice faced incursions on its territory from Syria by Palestinian refugees organized by the regime. Other U.S. Arab allies are observing Mr. Obama’s passivity with dismay: “Why doesn’t the United States have a policy?” one senior official from the Persian Gulf recently asked us.

In fact, Mr. Obama enunciated a clear policy four weeks ago. He said the United States would use all its power to stop violent repression and promote democratic transition in countries such as Syria. He said his words “must be translated into concrete actions.” But he has yet to act.

The Difference Between The Syrians And The Syrians: A story of rivalry

Rivalry among the country's various religious and ethnic minorities has been a perennial source of instability in Syria. During the 1980s, the primary cause of conflict was domination of top-level political and military posts by the minority Alawi community to which Assad belongs.

More worrisome perhaps was intra-Alawi friction. For example, some Alawis honored the memory of former political figure Major General Muhammad Umran, assassinated in Lebanon in 1972, reportedly by Syrian agents. Likewise, some Baath Party members remained loyal to the faction Assad overthrew in his 1970 Corrective Movement. This group, named the 23 February Movement, supported ex-Party Secretary Salah Jadid, ex-president Nureddin Atassi, and ex-prime minister Yusuf Zuayyin - all three of whom were incarcerated in Syria.

Assad


 Assad has repeatedly, and unsuccessfully, attempted to negotiate with these figures, offering them freedom in return for their approval of his government. In many respects, the Assad regime was more concerned with the activities of the 23 February Movement than with the open revolt of the Muslim Brethren.

Whereas the fundamentalists carried out terrorist attacks, the 23 February Movement staged several well-planned but abortive coup attempts in the 1980s and, because Umran and Jadid were Alawis, threatened to split the Alawi community.

On the other hand, Sunni Islamic fundamentalists have posed the most sustained and serious threat to the Baath regime. The government referred to these militants as the Muslim Brethren or Brotherhood (Ikhwan al Muslimin), although this is a generic term describing a number of separate organizations. The most important groups included the Aleppo-based Islamic Liberation Movement, established in 1963; the Islamic Liberation Party, founded in Jordan in the 1950s; Shabab Muhammad (Muhammad's Youth); Jund Allah (God's Soldiers); and At Tali'a al Muqatila (The Fighting Vanguard), established by the late Marwan Hadid in Hamah in 1965 and led in 1987 by Adnan Uqlah.

The At Tali'a al Muqatila group, which did not recognize the spiritual or political authority of the exiled veteran leader of Syria's Sunni fundamentalists, Issam al Attar, bore the brunt of the actual fighting against the regime. In the early 1980s, the Muslim Brethren staged repeated hit-and-run attacks against the Syrian regime and assassinated several hundred middle-level government officials and members of the security forces and about two dozen Soviet advisers.

 The armed conflict between the Muslim Brethren and the regime culminated in full-scale insurrection in Aleppo in 1980 and in Hamah in February 1982. The government responded to the Hamah revolt with brutal force, crushing the rebellion by killing between 10,000 and 25,000 civilians and leveling large parts of the city.

On the third anniversary of the Hamah rebellion in February 1985, the government announced an amnesty for Muslim Brotherhood members. About 500 of the Muslim Brethren were released from prison, and those who had fled abroad were encouraged to return to Syria. As a result of the amnesty many members of At Tali'a al Muqatila surrendered to government authorities. 

Terror attack Damascus March 13 1986



Following the Hamah uprising, extremist antiregime Muslim groups in Syria seemed fragmented and presented little threat to the Assad regime. The next series of major antiregime terrorist attacks occurred when a truck exploded in northern Damascus on March 13, 1986, followed by explosions on buses carrying military personnel on April 16. A Lebanese, claiming he had been sent by the Iraqi government, publicly confessed to the March incident and was hanged. Outside observers, however, were unable to verify his or Iraqi complicity. Other potential instigators included Lebanese Christian groups in retaliation for the Syrian role in artillery shelling and car bomb explosions in East Beirut, PLO factions such as al Fatah, and Israel.

Despite these dangers to Syrian internal security, the overall situation in the mid- and late 1980s was stable compared with the situation between 1946 and 1970. The traditional centers of dissatisfaction - students, labor unions, and dissident Communist Party organizations - were thoroughly infiltrated by Syrian security personnel and in early 1987 posed no significant threat to the government. However, Syrian society is a mosaic of social groups whose interests and loyalties have often conflicted. President Assad, more than any leader in the Syria's modern history, has been able to focus these conflicting interests and loyalties on national goals. Nevertheless, centrifugal forces, such as sectarianism, persisted in this volatile Arab nation, and the armed forces will probably long remain the ultimate arbiters of power.