They're Dropping Like Flies; Take A Bow, Moa

Officials in Libya's transitional government said Muammar Gaddafi has been killed in the fall of his hometown Sirte earlier today. But there was no official confirmation from the country's most senior leaders.

Information Minister Mahmoud Shammam said he has confirmed that Gaddafi was dead from fighters who said they saw the body. 

Minister Mahmoud Shammam

He said he expects the prime minister to confirm the death soon, noting that past reports emerged 'before making 100 per cent confirmation.' 'Our people in Sirte saw the body... Mustafa Abdul-Jalil will confirm it soon,' he told The Associated Press. 

'Revolutionaries say Gaddafi was in a convoy and that they attacked the convoy.' Colonel Roland Lavoie, spokesman for Nato's operational headquarters in Naples, Italy, said the alliance's aircraft on Thursday morning struck two vehicles of pro-Gaddafi forces 'which were part of a larger group maneuvering in the vicinity of Sirte.' But Nato officials, speaking on condition of anonymity in accordance to alliance rules, said the alliance also could not independently confirm whether Gaddafi was killed or captured.

The spokesman for Libya's transitional government, Jalal al-Gallal, and its military spokesman Abdul-Rahman Busin said the reports have not been confirmed.

The caution in making a definitive announcement came because past reports of Gaddafi family deaths or captures have later proven incorrect, even after they were announced by officials, because of the confusion among the revolutionary forces' ranks and the multiple bodies involved in commanding their fighters.

For Barack Obama and his national security team, the simultaneous fall of Sirte and the death of Muammar al-Qaddafi provide an important punctuation mark in their successful initiative to support Libyan rebels and bring an end to an odious dictatorship.

The political benefits that accrue to the president at home will be modest. Domestic issues command the attention of American voters. What's more, the president's Republican opponents don't want to talk about the war on terroris very much. And with good reason. The president's record is for the most part too good to take issue with.

The president came into office promising to get the United States out of a disliked war in Iraq and has kept the promise. He came in promising to shift the focus to Afghanistan and finishing the business of decapitating al Qaeda. He did both. Bin Laden is dead. And we are committed to coming home from Afghanistan, too. While the administration's response to the first stirrings of rebellion in the United States, Occupy Wall Street, Restoring relations with our European allies, engineering the "pivot" in priorities to Asia cited by Secretary of State Clinton, and the recognition of the growing importance of dealing with emerging powers are all developments that are going to determine his chances of re-election.

But more important than any political benefits that accrue to the president as a result of this successful outcome to the Libya effort is that it brings into focus an important shift in U.S. national security strategy, a doctrine that stands alongside Clinton's "pivot" as one of the signature contributions of Obama and his security policymakers. Indeed, although I am reluctant to throw around the term "doctrine" because it has become devalued through overuse, I believe it puts into focus what can and should be identified as the Obama Doctrine, which we've all seen to mean, "Kill all terrorist threats".

General Colin Powell

This doctrine stands in contrast to the famous doctrine named for General Colin Powell. Powell's approach turns on the idea that prior to military action being taken by the United States; we must first exhaust all other means of advancing our national interest and then when we engage that we use every available means to achieve clearly defined goals and thus be able to execute a reasonable exit strategy.

This approach was, more than anything else, a reaction to the problems the U.S. encountered in Vietnam and the "every available means" or "overwhelming force" element was clearly a manifestation of a deep pockets view of U.S. resources that now seems like the quaint echo of a bygone time.

The New Obama Doctrine

The Obama Doctrine, while also grounded in the idea that we must exhaust every other means of advancing our national interest, is responding to the lessons of a different unpopular war, in this case, Iraq. It is a reaction against the use of "overwhelming force" to achieve rather narrow (not to mention dubious) goals. It is an antidote to "shock and awe," "three trillion dollar wars" and unilateral conventional invasions if they can possibly be avoided.

Whereas the Bush administration engaged in an open checkbook approach to a global "war on terror" (a perversion of the Powell doctrine that was especially uncomfortable for Powell himself to watch unfold), Obama's approach -- in fighting terror, getting Bin Laden, assisting with the ouster of Qaddafi, and elsewhere -- has been not only to cast aside the term "war on terror" but also the strategies and tactics of massive ground war.

Obama & Co. embrace the orthoscopic alternative to the open heart surgery favored by the Bush team. The Obama Doctrine prioritizes the use of intelligence, unmanned aircraft, special forces, and the leverage of teaming with others to achieve very narrowly defined but critical goals. That word leverage is the key. It is about using technological superiority, effective intelligence, surprise, and smart collaboration to make the most of limited resources and do so in a way that minimizes risks to both personnel and to America's international standing and our bank account.

"Leading from behind" is an important element of this doctrine. It is no insult to lead but let others feel they too are architects of a plan, to lead without making others feel you are bullying, to lead but do so in a way in which risks and other burdens are shared. Libya is a test case for this approach. It too started ugly and there are many lessons to be learned by NATO and the United States about how to do this better. Our communications around the time of undertaking the involvement were also handled in a ham-fisted manner. No matter. Most of that will be forgotten now. Outcomes matter most and the outcome here has been low-cost and high-reward.

More importantly, perhaps, it solidifies an Obama approach to meeting international threats that seems better suited to America's current capabilities, comparative advantages, political mood and the preferences of our allies everywhere than prior approaches which were created in and tailored to far different times.

Let's See; Who's Next

Where's Moa?

          Has anyone seen This Man? Moammar Gadhafi

He is nowhere to be found as his 42-year rule of Libya crumbles. Months of NATO air strikes have left his Bab al-Aziziya compound in Tripoli largely demolished. Most of his security forces fled or surrendered when rebel forces rolled into the capital Sunday night and took control of most of the city.  

Mohammed Gadhafi



Saif al-Islam Gadhafi

Rebels said that three of Gadhafi's sons had been arrested. But one report said that his eldest son, Mohammed Gadhafi, was reported to have escaped Monday, according to the Libyan ambassador to the United States.Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, who is wanted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, had been reported captured on Sunday along with two of his brothers. Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the ICC's chief prosecutor, had said Sunday that he would seek Saif al-Islam Gadhafi's extradition following his capture. But Saif Islam turned up early Tuesday morning at the Rixos hotel, where about 30 foreign journalists are staying in Tripoli under the close watch of regime minders. He then took reporters in a convoy of black, armored SUVs on a drive through parts of the city under the regime's control. Asked about the warrant for his arrest, Saif al-Islam told reporters, "To hell with the ICC." 

M.C. Moa, rappin' in L.A 



"The real moment of victory is when Gadhafi is captured," Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, head of the rebel National Transitional Council, told a news conference in the opposition's de facto capital of Benghazi, hundreds of miles east of Tripoli. He said the rebels have no idea where Gadhafi is and whether he is even in Tripoli. An Obama administration official said the U.S. had no indication that Gadhafi had left Libya.

The official said U.S. officials and NATO partners had not been in contact with Gadhafi during the siege on Tripoli. However, the official said U.S. and NATO representatives, as well as Libyan rebels, had been in contact with people around Gadhafi, mostly those looking for a way out.

Back stage at Gadhfi's concert in L.A





Scuds Away

A mood of joy mixed with trepidation settled over the capital, with the rebels still fighting pockets of fierce resistance from regime loyalists firing mortars and anti-aircraft guns. Rebel spokesman Mohammed Abdel-Rahman, who was in Tripoli, said the "danger is still there" as long as Gadhafi remains on the run.

Gadhafi's forces remained active, firing off a short-range Scud missile Monday near Sirte, Gadhafi's hometown and one of the few remaining cities still under his control, said U.S. military officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military operations. It was unclear where the missile landed or whether anyone was hurt.

NATO pledged to keep up its air campaign until all pro-Gadhafi forces surrender or return to their barracks. The alliance's warplanes have hit at least 40 targets in and around Tripoli in the past two days -- the highest number on a single geographic location since the bombing started in March, NATO said.

A day after the rebels rode into the city of 2 million, the situation remained volatile. Even though rebels claimed they were in control of most of Tripoli, they still appeared to be on the defensive, ducking for cover during frequent clashes with regime fighters. Throughout the day, the rebels sent reinforcements to the city from the north, south and southeast, and a rebel field commander said more than 4,000 fighters were part of the final push to bring down the regime.

Libyan commandos fighting Gaddafis forces came close to capturing the toppled leader on Wednesday when they raided a private home in Tripoli where he appeared to have been hiding, Paris Match magazine said  today. A unit which was coordinating intelligence services for Arab states and Libyan rebels, said on its website that these services believed Gaddafi was still somewhere in the Libyan capital.

Hiding out as one of Cherry Bombs boobs



The opinion is split as to whether the arrest warrants make a negotiated settlement with Gaddafi regime more or less likely. Colonel Gaddafi “personally ordered attacks on unarmed Libyan civilians,” in which armed forces shot demonstrators, fired heavy weapons on funeral processions and “placed snipers to kill those leaving mosques after prayers,” during the first weeks of the Libyan uprising, prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said. Mr. Moreno-Ocampo began investigating the situation in Libya after the United Nations Security Council referred the case to the court. The Court’s decision coincides with the 100th day of NATO operations in Libya.



As for Moa; He'll turn up somewhere, or he'll continue to pursue his budding career in the entertainment industry. So, We'll keep an eye out for you Moa.

Lookout: The Horny Soldiers Are Cumming





I Got That VIAGRA, Man!

 



As discussting as this sound, it's true and the chief prosecutor of the international criminal court (ICC) is likely to add rape to the war crimes charges against Muammar Gadahfi on the back of mounting evidence that sexual attacks on women are being used as a weapon in the Libyan conflict.

Luis Moreno-Ocampo


Luis Moreno-Ocampo informed reporters at the UN in New York last night there were strong indications that hundreds of women had been raped in the Libyan government clampdown on the popular uprising and that Gadahfi had ordered the attacks as a form of punishment.

The prosecutor said there was even stronger evidence that the government had been handing out doses of Viagra to soldiers and encouraged the sexual attacks. Moreno-Ocampo said rape was a new tactic for the Libyan regime. "That's why we had doubts at the beginning, but now we are more convinced. Apparently, Gadahfi decided to punish, using rape."

The move came as Gadahfi's forces responded to Nato's intensified aerial bombardment of Tripoli on Tuesday by launching a heavy attack on rebel positions outside the liberated city of Misrata, unleashing a barrage of Grad rockets and mortars against rebel 

Liam Fox

positions to the east, west and south of Misurata early on Wednesday morning, and followed up with an infantry assault. The Hikma hospital reported at least 10 rebel fighters died and 26 were wounded.

The attack came as Liam Fox, the defence secretary, expressed increasing frustration with the slow progress of the western-led military campaign, forcefully telling fellow Nato ministers at a meeting in Brussels they should contribute more.

Nato said the targets it had struck in and around Tripoli included six command and control centers, two anti-aircraft guns, a radar system and a vehicle storage facility. The worst damage occurred at Gadahfi's Bab al-Aziziya compound, where several buildings were destroyed, sending giant plumes of smoke into the sky. Bombing continued on Wednesday morning, but with less intensity.



Gadahfi, who is in hiding in the capital and has rarely been seen or heard from in recent weeks, reacted with fury to the attack, insisting he would fight to the end in an audio broadcast on state television.

Moussa Ibrahim



Government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said 31 people – soldiers, guards, and civilians – had been killed and described Nato as "the forces of evil". The casualty figure could not be independently verified.

In an attempt to show Nato had struck non-military targets, government minders on Wednesday morning took journalists to see a "nature reserve", occasionally used by Gaddafi to entertain guests, which had been hit the previous evening.

The missiles had destroyed two trucks, one of them very large, a golf cart, a large tent and several containers, including one that had computer equipment and a paper shredder inside.

Officials were unable to explain what the vehicles were doing on a nature reserve, or why there were windsocks nearby, which appeared to suggest the presence of an airfield.

The surge in the number of attacks on targets in Tripoli, which follows the incorporation of attack helicopters into Nato's mission on the weekend, is a clear attempt to end the military stalemate on the ground and hasten Gadahfi's exit. Nearly four months into the conflict, rebels control large parts of eastern Libya, a string of towns in the western mountains, near the border with Tunisia, as well as Misurata. Opposition fighters there said they had repelled Wednesday's attack by government forces.

"Our will is stronger than theirs," said Sadik Ibrahim Mohammed, an injured rebel fighter. "The Shebab rebels have the heart. The Gadahfi soldiers ran away."

But the various frontlines are all still some way from Tripoli, where the regime still has a tight grip on the population. The Libyan government says that the escalated aerial campaign against Gadahfi had gone far beyond the mandate of protecting civilians, a point some critics of the operation outside Libya agree with.

Fox told a meeting of Nato ministers: "I firmly believe that we must intensify our pressure on the regime and it is imperative our military commanders have the assets and capabilities they need to do the job all of us around this table have asked of them: to defeat those regime elements which continue to threaten civilians. Let me be frank. Nato is not just about military hardware. It is also about values. And those values are not an optional extra."

Libyan premier says he's ready to talk

Libya's government has pushed a ceasefire proposal and said for the first time it is prepared to speak with its rebel adversaries, signaling months of fighting and NATO bombardment may be closer to forcing some concessions.

Even so, the government has insisted Muammar Gadahfi will not relinquish power, which he has held for more than 40 years.

His departure is a key demand of the United States, European leaders and the rebels, who say they will not consider halting more than three months of fighting until Gadahfi goes.

Prime Minister Al-Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi

"The leader, Muammar Gadahfi, is in the heart of every Libyan. If he leaves, the entire Libyan people leave," Prime Minister Al-Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi said today.

He told reporters in the Libyan capital he was willing to hold talks with "all Libyans", including members of the rebel administration based in the eastern city of Benghazi.

Officials from Gadahfi's regime said before they would not speak to the rebel government, arguing it did not represent Libyans.

Al-Mahmoudi did not outline the government's latest ceasefire proposal in detail, but emphasized NATO must be a party to it, not just the rebels.

He would not say whether the government would meet NATO's demands to return its military forces to their barracks.

"Libya is serious about a ceasefire. But that means a halt for all parties, in particular NATO," al-Mahmoudi said.

"Any ceasefire needs its own special arrangements between technical and military people. Everything will be discussed once we have a ceasefire."

The White House dismissed the proposal as not credible.

US deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said such offers must be backed up by action.



National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes



He said the Libyan government is not complying with the UN resolution that authorized the international military operation to protect the Libyan people from forces loyal to Gadahfi.

He said the effort to drive Gadahfi from power would continue.

The UN resolution called for an immediate ceasefire. The Gadahfi government unilaterally announced several truces in the past but did not adhere to them.

Libyan officials argue they cannot conduct a one-sided ceasefire and say all parties - NATO and the rebels included - must simultaneously halt their fire.

Al-Mahmoudi sent a letter to European governments seeking their backing for the latest proposal.

One of the nations that received it, Spain, responded by saying that it and the rest of the 27-nation European Union are insisting Gadahfi's government take certain steps first, a Spanish government spokesman said today.

He did not elaborate and spoke on condition of anonymity in keeping with government rules.

Spain is one of the NATO allies taking part in the international air campaign in support of the rebels.

The British newspaper The Independent said today it obtained a copy of al-Mahmoudi's letter and it proposed an immediate ceasefire to be monitored by the UN and the African Union.

It also called for unconditional talks with the opposition, amnesty for both sides in the conflict and the drafting of a new constitution, according to the newspaper.

"We are prepared to speak to the social and popular leaders that represent Libya ... whether in the (rebel) council or a popular leader," al-Mahmoudi said at today's news conference.

"We are ready to sit with all Libyans around one table. All Libyans feel that the time has come for discussions to deal all the developments."

Al-Mahmoudi said the NATO strikes would not make the government "kneel" and that there was no military solution.

Libya's rebel administration repeated its insistence that before any ceasefire can be considered, Gadahfi's regime must respond to the demands in the UN resolution.

Besides a ceasefire, the resolution calls for an end to attacks on civilians, unimpeded access for humanitarian assistance and talks on a solution that responds to "the legitimate demands of the Libyan people".

Nevertheless, the rebels appeared to welcome the diplomatic movement.

Council, Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga



The deputy leader of the rebel's National Transitional Council, Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga, said that "political processes are under way to negotiate ways for his (Gadahfi's) exit, so in our opinion it is a matter of time for this process to come to a critical conclusion".

Asked about missing American journalist Matthew VanDyke, the Libyan prime minister said he was not in the government's custody and he had no other information.

The 31-year-old freelance reporter from Baltimore last spoke with his family on March 12, saying he was heading to the eastern oil town of Brega.

"All journalists that were in our custody and detention have been released," al-Mahmoudi said. "There are no journalists detained or imprisoned in Libyan custody. If he is in another place - God knows - but with us, we have no journalists."

Meanwhile, splits emerged within Libya's rebel movement over a timetable for a transition to democracy.

Ghoga announced on Wednesday that it could take up to two years to organize elections, backtracking on promises of a six-month transition to democracy and adding to the internal dissent that has been brewing.

Tunisia demands Libya stop cross boarder and shelling



Libyan forces overrun boarder with Tunisia



Tunisia threatened to report Libya to the U.N. Security Council if it fired into Tunisian territory again, after Libya's three-month-old conflict spilled beyond its borders.

Libyan rebels and a Tunisian security source said the head of Libya's National Oil Corporation had defected and fled to Tunisia, an act that if confirmed would be a major blow to Muammar Gaddafi's efforts to cling to power.

In the besieged city of Misurata, fighting flared up again after a lull, with a doctor saying that seven people had been wounded, most of them rebel fighters, in clashes on Tuesday with government forces.

Tunisia's state-run TAP news agency said the government would threaten Libya with diplomatic action over the "continuing firing of rockets by Libyan forces towards Tunisian territory."

"The Tunisian government views those acts as belligerent behavior from the Libyan side who had pledged more than once to prevent its forces from firing in the direction of Tunisia and has failed to respect its undertakings," TAP quoted a foreign ministry source as saying.



Russian-made Grad rocket Launcher System 


At least four Russian-made Grad rockets fired from Libya landed inside Tunisia yesterday, according to a reporter at the scene.

Rocket attacks by government troops forced Libyan rebels to pull back briefly from the Dehiba-Wazin border crossing, but they ended the day in control of it despite a sustained bombardment that killed three rebels and wounded several.

A reporter at the crossing today said the shelling had stopped and the border had reopened, allowing a steady flow of traffic through.

Farmers were crossing over from Libya to take livestock to a market on the Tunisian side of the border, while a Tunisian military helicopter was making passes around the border area.

The border crossing is a lifeline for rebels on the western front of Libya's conflict, allowing food, medicine and fuel to reach rebel-held towns on the mountain plateau, and ambulances to take casualties to hospital in Tunisia.

In eastern Libya, rebels hold Benghazi and a swathe of oil-producing territory, helped by a NATO bombing campaign authorized at the United Nations to protect civilians opposed to Gaddafi.

But a military victory for the rebels seems a distant prospect and many pin their hopes on a collapse of central power in Tripoli driven by disaffection and defections.

National oil chief Shokri Ghanem, 68, is an internationally respected technocrat who is credited with liberalizing Libya's economy and energy sector. He is also a former prime minister.

A Libyan government official said there was no sign he had defected, but a Tunisian security source told Reuters on Tuesday "he is in a hotel with a group of other Libyan officials" in southern Tunisia.

Rebel finance and oil minister Ali Tarhouni said on a visit to Qatar that he understood Ghanem had left his post.

If he has left the country, it could worsen fuel shortages which have been causing long queues at petrol stations and anger among ordinary people.

Ghanem was heavily involved in efforts to relieve the shortages by bringing in gasoline in ways that circumvented sanctions, and by increasing domestic refining.

N.A.T.O aistrikes inside Libyia

Canada, whose warplanes are taking part in NATO's air strikes in Libya, said on Tuesday it had expelled five diplomats from Libya's embassy in the capital, Ottawa, for what it said were "inappropriate" activities.

It did not give details on what the diplomats had been doing, and said it was not severing diplomatic relations.

In Misurata, the only rebel-held city in western Libya, a hospital doctor said seven people were killed in fighting between rebels and besieging government forces. Most of the dead were rebels killed on the eastern and western edges of the city.

Libyan state television said its forces had hit a NATO warship that was shelling targets in western Misurata, but a NATO official denied the report as "a totally fabricated allegation".

Rebels Want US To Kill Gadahfi Just Like Bin Laden





Matter Of Time

  

Libyan leader Muammar Gadahfi's life should end just like al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden, a Libyan rebel spokesman said on Thursday. “We would be very happy if that were to happen and we are waiting for the next step. We want the Americans to do the same to Gaddafi,” said rebel military spokesman Colonel Ahmed Bani.

Colonel Ahmed Bani.

"We know Osama bin Laden is fighting against us, he is our enemy also,” he said, adding that Libyan rebels had evidence al Qaeda sympathizers had been fighting against them.

Unless NATO, including the United States, get more serious, Libya’s liberation war could turn into a prolonged, bloody stalemate. Col. Muammar el-Gadahfi is ruthless, and rebel forces are weak and disorganized. NATO still has the military means to help tip the balance if it can summon the unity and the will.

In their latest horror, Gadahfi forces rained shells this week on the rebel-held port area of Misurata, trying to keep international relief vessels from unloading humanitarian supplies. The civilian death toll from the war is already estimated in the thousands, while streams of desperate refugees keep pouring into Tunisia, Egypt and Europe. The alliance needs to get its act together.

President Obama was right to hand over this mission to Canadian and European command once the initial American strikes had shattered Libyan air defenses. But crucial momentum was lost in the transition. Coordination with rebel fighters was initially poor, leading to friendly fire disasters. The string of defections from the Gaddafi inner circle came to an end, as government forces dug in.

A-10



AC-130

 NATO allies, particularly Britain and France, have the high performance fighters that can carry the main burden of the air campaign. But the Pentagon needs to send America’s specialized low-flying attack planes, the A-10 and the AC-130, back into action against Libyan Army tanks. These are far more effective at destroying enemy vehicles and avoiding friendly ones.

Colonel Gadahfi has left no question about his willingness to murder civilians. Bombing strikes against military command centers, including Gadahfi compounds, are well within the United Nations Security Council’s mandate. They need to continue, though innocent Gadahfi family members should not be deliberately targeted.

Washington and other capitals need to do more intelligence work to figure out how to peel away more important Libyan players — and what mix of pressures and inducements need to be brought to bear.

 Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan



 And NATO needs to start speaking with one clear voice. We were pleased to hear Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, finally declare that Colonel Gadahfi must “immediately step down.” But Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany remains on the sidelines. All of the public squabbling has played into Colonel Gadahfi’s hands, reinforcing his claims that NATO doesn’t have the stomach or the sticking power.

Events in Libya pose a more direct threat to Europe than to the United States. Europe relies heavily on Libyan oil and a prolonged crisis will cause serious shortfalls in Italy and other countries. European leaders are already fighting over which country will take Libyan (and Tunisian) refugees, leading panicky French politicians to partially shutter their previously open border with Italy.

With no quick resolution in sight, the international community must extend a financial lifeline to beleaguered rebel-held regions. Diplomats from 22 NATO and Arab countries met in Rome on Thursday to consider rebel requests for urgent financial assistance. There are legal obstacles to immediately releasing the roughly $30 billion in frozen Gadahfi regime assets to rebel authorities in Benghazi. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton pledged to expedite that process.

At Thursday’s meeting, diplomats also said they were creating an international fund to channel humanitarian and financial assistance to rebel areas. The United States, Qatar and Kuwait promised generous contributions. European nations and other affluent Arab countries should do the same, with strict monitoring mechanisms put in place to make sure the aid goes to its intended recipients.

Meanwhile, Turkey said it was evacuating staff from its embassy in Tripoli after attacks by angry Libyans on European embassies in the city following a NATO airstrike that killed a son of leader Gadahfi.

“We decided to evacuate our embassy in Tripoli temporarily due to security reasons,” Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters. “Our ambassador to Tripoli has travelled safely to Tunisia in the morning. Turkey is closely monitoring the changing security conditions in Libya”.

NATO's strategic incoherence is costing Libyan their lives



Libyan Rebels Protest N.A.T.O



Britain, France, and Italy took a step deeper into the Libyan civil war this week by announcing that they will send military advisers to aid the beleaguered rebels. The decision grabbed headlines, but it won’t do much to change the course of the fighting. 

British Foreign Secretary William Hague



British Foreign Secretary William Hague justified the decision to send military trainers by saying: “As the scale of the humanitarian crisis has grown, so has urgency of increasing our efforts to defend civilians against attack from Gadahfi forces.”

Washington has applauded its allies’ decision, but it is not following suit. The Obama administration is only offering the rebels $25 million in body armor, tents, uniforms, and other nonlethal equipment.

The British, French, and Italian decisions are a tacit admission that the prospects for ousting Muammar Gadahfi have dimmed. The rebels have failed in their effort to retake key Libyan towns. Meanwhile, the situation in Misurata, Libya’s third largest city, has grown increasingly grim as pro-Gadahfi forces continue to attack rebel positions.

But deciding to do something is not the same thing as deciding to do enough. The British, French, and Italians are offering far less than the breathless news headlines suggest. The number of advisers headed to Benghazi is small—a maximum of twenty British advisers and perhaps ten or so French and Italian advisers. These trainers will operate under strict limitations on what they can do.

Even if NATO flooded Libya with military trainers the military balance on the ground would not change any time soon. Crack fighting forces aren’t built over night. Just look at how long the United States has been at it trying to build the Afghan and Iraqi armies.

Advisers and assistance probably won’t make a difference in the long run either. Pro-Gadahfi forces are relatively well-armed and trained. They also have good reason to continue fighting: the reasonable fear that they will lose their privileges if not their lives if the rebels prevail.

So the most likely outcome is that the fighting in Libya will drag on for months.

Will the rising civilian death toll eventually spur NATO to send ground troops into Libya? Probably not. Libya is not Vietnam, where the introduction of a few military advisers in the late 1950s eventually grew into a commitment of half-a-million troops by the mid-1960s. Although Vice President Joe Biden insists that “the traffic [at home] can bear politically more in Libya,” the polls suggest otherwise. Neither Americans nor Europeans are eager to send their fellow citizens to fight, and possibly die, in Libya.

This highlights the fundamental strategic flaw in NATO’s military operations. Washington, Paris, and London decided that Gadahfi must go, but they are unwilling to pay the cost to make that happen. Libyan civilians, precisely the people the NATO mission is supposed to protect, are paying the price for this strategic incoherence.

Libya: A new phase in the conflict

The Libyan city of Misrata, besieged by government forces since the outset of this conflict, is a symbol of the rebel forces' tenacity, and of the inadequacy of NATO's strategy.

Indeed, Misrata is fast becoming the anvil on which the Atlantic Alliance's whole policy could falter.

Western air power turned advancing Libyan government forces back from Benghazi at the outset of this campaign; a quick success story, hailed by participating countries as justification for the decision to intervene.

But now, some four weeks on, Libyan government pressure on Misrata, a city of some 300,000 people is, if anything, growing.

The claim by Human Rights Watch over the weekend that Libyan government troops were firing cluster munitions into civilian areas - denied in Tripoli - gives added urgency to the city's plight.

Air strikes around Misrata's outskirts have served to keep Col Gadahfi's troops at bay, but only just.

They have infiltrated the city, parking their armored vehicles in among buildings, making them harder to hit without risking civilian casualties.

If anything, Misrata illustrates once again the limitations of modern air power.

Whatever politicians may think, it cannot win conflicts on its own. It is a decisive factor but must be employed along with effective forces on the ground. That is precisely what is lacking on the rebel side in Libya.

Nato aircraft have also struck at Libyan government vessels in order to keep open the tenuous maritime access to the city.

It is this maritime link that is now the focus of discussions in New York, with urgent efforts under way to bolster the volume of humanitarian aid going into the city.

But the sea route out has also been vital for the evacuation of casualties and there are growing fears for large numbers of migrant workers who find themselves stranded in a war zone.

So in a sense one phase of this conflict is over. Colonel Gadahfi's forces have weathered the storm. His regime has not collapsed.

Nato warplanes have contributed to an enforced stalemate in the east, but the inadequacies of the rebel forces mean that they are unable to defeat their government opponents on the ground.

After a hectic series of diplomatic meetings over the past week there seems to be a general sense that something more must be done, But what? None of the options are quick or simple.

1. Nato boots on the ground:

Military experts believe that a relatively limited force of well-trained western troops might make a significant difference. But Nato leaders appear unwilling to countenance the use of ground troops, constrained by the terms of UN Security Council resolution 1973 and concerns about how this would look both to Arab opinion and their own publics at home.


2. Equip and train:

The focus may shift to providing training for the rebel forces. Qatar for one has signaled it is willing to pay, but who exactly might provide the expertise required remains an open question.

Training takes time. What the rebel forces need badly for example are low-level commanders able to conduct basic fire and movement manoeuvres. These skills cannot be learnt, and more importantly employed, overnight.

Reports from Benghazi suggest rebel forces are already beginning to get some arms shipments, though their scale and content is unclear.


3. Advice and support

Another option, linked with "equip and train" would be to have outside experts or advisers on the ground alongside rebel forces. They could provide key coordinating skills which might also increase the effectiveness of Nato air-power. But here too the question is: where would they come from?

The crisis in Misrata gives added urgency to all these questions.